TED学院 | 制造业工作岗位流失的真相，千万别被贸易保护主义忽悠
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The real reason manufacturing jobs are disappearing
演讲者：Augie Picado
简介：很多人认为美国制造业的衰退是因为企业将业务转移到海外那些劳动力价格低廉的市场中去了， 比如中国，墨西哥和越南。 他们还认为贸易协定是不公平的， 比如NAFTA，TPP，而现状是，美国制造业的产量实际上是在增长的，只是我们的工作岗位在流失。制造业岗位的流失中，有87%是因为我们通过自动化改造提高了生产率。 这就意味着，只有十分之一的制造业岗位流失跟生产转移到国外有关
📃 中英对照演讲稿
When someone mentions Cuba, what do you think about? Classic, classic cars? Perhaps good cigars? Maybe you think of a famous baseball player. What about when somebody mentions North Korea? You think about those missile tests, maybe their notorious leader or his good friend, Dennis Rodman.
当有人提到古巴的时候，你会想到什么？老爷车？上等雪茄？或者某位著名的棒球运动员。而提到北朝鲜呢？你会想到导弹试射，或者名声不怎么好的领导人或者他的好朋友，丹尼斯·罗德曼。
One thing that likely doesn't come to mind is a vision of a country, an open economy, whose citizens have access to a wide range of affordable consumer products.
而提到这些国家时，你绝不会想到的是，经济开放，民众能买得到众多消费品，而且也负担得起。
I'm not here to argue how these countries got to where they are today. I simply want to use them as an example of countries and citizens who have been affected, negatively affected, by a trade policy that restricts imports and protects local industries. Recently we've heard a number of countries talk about restricting imports and protecting their local, domestic industries.
我今天不想讨论这些国家是怎么走到今天这种境地的。我仅仅想把它们作为一种典型，来说明国家和民众，是如何被限制进口，保护本地工业的贸易政策所影响，负面的影响。最近我们听说有许多国家在谈论限制进口，保护国内的工业。
Now, this may sound fine in a sound bite, but what it really is is protectionism. We heard a lot about this during the 2016 presidential election. We heard about it during the Brex it debates and most recently during the French elections. In fact, it's been a really important topic being talked about around the world, and many aspiring political leader sare running on platforms positioning protectionism as a good thing.
如果作为新闻标题，可能听起来还不错，但这实际上是一种贸易保护主义。我们在2016年总统大选期间听到过很多这样的表述。在英国退出欧盟期间也听过不少，还有最近的法国大选也是一样。实际上，这个议题非常重要，在世界各国都是如此，许多有抱负的政治领袖都会把贸易保护主义视为一件好事，并将其纳入自己的纲领中。
Now, I could see why they think protectionism is good, because sometimes it seems like trade is unfair. Some have blamed trade for some of the problems we've been having here at home in the US. For years we've been hearing about the loss of high-paying US manufacturing jobs.
我现在有点明白为何他们把贸易保护主义视为好事，因为有时候贸易看起来是不平等的。有人还会责怪贸易，认为贸易是美国国内很多问题的源头。有一件事情我们谈论了好几年，就是关于美国高薪制造业工作岗位的流失。
Many think that manufacturing is declining in the US because companies are moving their operations offshore to markets with lower-cost labor like China, Mexico and Vietnam. They also think trade agreements sometimes are unfair, like NAFTA and the Trans-Pacific Partnership, because these trade agreements allow companies to reimport those cheaply produced goods back into the US and other countries from where the jobs were taken. So it kind of feels like the exporters win and the importers lose.
很多人认为美国制造业的衰退是因为企业将业务转移到海外那些劳动力价格低廉的市场中去了，比如中国，墨西哥和越南。他们还认为贸易协定有时候是不公平的，比如北美自由贸易协定(NAFTA)，比如跨太平洋伙伴关系(TPP)，因为这些贸易协定允许企业从那些获得了工作岗位的国家重新进口廉价生产的货物到那些岗位被抢走的美国和其它国家。感觉好像是出口国赚了，而进口国亏了。
Now, the reality is output in the manufacturing sector in the US is actually growing, but we are losing jobs. We're losing lots of them. In fact, from 2000 to 2010, 5.7 million manufacturing jobs were lost. But they're not being lost for the reasons you might think. Mike Johnson in Toledo, Ohio didn't lose his jobs at the factory to Miguel Sanchez in Monterrey, Mexico.
而目前的现状是，美国制造业的产量实际上是在增长的，但是我们的工作岗位在流失。大量的流失。从2000年到2010年，我们失去了570万个制造业岗位。但流失的原因并不是大家所想象的那样。俄亥俄州托莱多市的麦克·约翰逊，他的工作并不是被墨西哥蒙特雷的米格尔·桑切斯抢走的。
No. Mike lost his job to a machine. 87percent of lost manufacturing jobs have been eliminated because we've madeim provements in our own productivity through automation. So that means that one out of 10 lost manufacturing jobs was due to offshoring. Now, this is not just a US phenomenon. No. In fact, automation is spreading to every production line in every country around the world.
不是这样的。麦克的工作是被机器抢走了。制造业岗位的流失中，有87%是因为我们通过自动化改造提高了生产率。这就意味着，只有十分之一的制造业岗位流失跟生产转移到国外有关。这种现象不仅仅发生在美国。不是的。自动化正在蔓延到世界上每一个国家，每一条生产线上。
But look, I get it: if you just lost your job and then you read in the newspaper that your old company just struck up a deal with China, it's easy to think you were just replaced in a one-for-one deal.
但我承认，表面上看，如果你刚刚失业，紧接着你在报纸上看到你的老东家跟中国刚刚签了一笔订单，你就很容易联想到自己在一对一交易中被替代掉了。
When I hear stories like this, I think that what people picture is that trade happens between only two countries. Manufacturers in one country produce products and they export them to consumers in other countries, and it feels like the manufacturing countries win and the importing countries lose.
每当我听到这样的故事，我就会想，人们往往认为贸易只发生在两个国家之间。一个国家的生产商生产产品，然后出口到其他国家的消费者手中，看起来感觉生产国赚了，而进口国亏了。
Well, reality's a little bit different. I'm a supply chain professional, and I live and work in Mexico. And I work in them iddle of a highly connected network of manufacturers all collaborating fro maround the world to produce many of the products we use today.
实际情况其实有所不同。我是一名供应链专家，我在墨西哥生活和工作。我的工作属于一个紧密联系的制造商网络，它们来自世界各地，互相协作，共同生产许多我们日常所需的产品。
What I see from my front-row seat in Mexico City actually looks more like this. And this is a more accurate depiction of what trade really looks like. I've had the pleasure of being able to see how many different products are manufactured, from golf clubs to laptop computers to internet servers, automobiles and even airplanes. And believe me, none of it happens in a straight line.
我在墨西哥城获得的第一手见闻更符合下面这种情况。这是对于真实的贸易更为精确的描述。我有幸能看到各种各样的产品是如何生产出来的，从高尔夫球杆到笔记本电脑，网络服务器，汽车，甚至飞机。相信我，没有哪一种产品来自刚刚那条两国之间的直线。
Let me give you an example. A few months ago, I was touring the manufacturing plant of a multinational aerospace company in Querétaro, Mexico, and the VP of logistics points out a completed tail assembly. It turns out the tail assemblies are assembled from panels that are manufactured in France, and they're assembled in Mexico using components imported from the US.
我来举个例子。几个月前，我参观了位于墨西哥克雷塔罗州的一家跨国航空公司的制造厂。负责物流的副总裁给我们看了一个组装完毕的机尾。这个组装完毕的机尾，所用的金属板是在法国生产，在墨西哥组装，使用的零件进口自美国。
When those tail assemblies are done, they're exported viatruck to Canada to their primary assembly plant where they come together with thousands of other parts, like the wings and the seats and the little shades over the little windows, all coming in to become a part of a new airplane. Think about it. These new airplanes, before they even take their first flight, they have more stamps in their passports than Angelina Jolie.
当这些机尾组装完毕后，会通过卡车运输出口到加拿大，那里有他们的主装配工厂，成千上万的其他零件在那里被组装到一起，像机翼，座位，窗户上的遮光板，都汇集于此，成为一架新飞机的一部分。想象一下，这些新飞机，在它们首飞之前，护照上盖的章已经比安吉丽娜·朱莉的还要多。
Now, this approach to processing goes on all around the world to manufacture many of the products we use every day, from skin cream to airplanes. When you go home tonight, take a look in your house. You might be surprised to find a label that looks like this one: "Manufactured in the USA from US and foreign parts."
这样的情况在世界各地越来越多，生产我们日常所需的许多产品，从润肤霜到飞机。今晚你们回家后，四处看看。你可能会惊奇地找到一个这样的标签：“美国生产，零件来自美国和其他国家。”
Economist Michael Porter described what's going on here best. Many decades ago, he said that it's most beneficial for a country to focus on producing the products it can produce most efficiently and trading for the rest. So what he's talking about here is shared production, andefficiency is the name of the game. You've probably seen an example of this at home or at work.
经济学家麦克·波特对此有着最为精辟的描述。在几十年前，他就指出，对一个国家而言最有利的做法，就是专注于生产自己生产率最高的产品，然后通过贸易来获得其他产品。他所说的就是协同生产，而效率是其中最关键的一点。大家很可能见过这样的例子，无论在家还是在工作中。
Let's take a look at an example. Think about how your house was built or your kitchen renovated. Typically, there's a general contractor who is responsible for coordinating the efforts of all the different contractors: an architect to draw the plans, an earth-moving company to dig the foundation, a plumber, a carpenter and so on.
让我们来看一个例子。想想你们家房子是怎么盖起来的或者厨房是怎么翻新的。一般来说，会有一个总承包商他会负责协调不同承包商的工作：设计师绘制图纸，基建公司挖好地基，还有水管工、木匠等等。
So why doesn't the general contractor pick just one company to do all the work, like, say, thear chitect? Because this is silly. The general contractor selects experts because it takes years to learn and master how to do each of the tasks it takes to build a house or renovate a kitchen, some of them requiring special training. Think about it: Would you want your architect to install your toilet? Of course not.
那为什么这个总承包商不会只选择一家公司来完成所有的工作呢，比如说，只找设计师？因为这么做很傻。总承包商会选择专业人士，因为学习和专精盖房子和翻新厨房的某一个领域都需要花费数年的时间，有些甚至需要专业的训练。试想一下，你会愿意让设计师来帮你安装马桶吗？当然不会。
So let's apply this process to the corporate world. Companies today focus on manufacturing what they produce best and most efficiently, and they trade for everything else. So this means they rely on a global, interconnected, interdependent network of manufacturers to produce these products. In fact, that network is so interconnected it's almost impossible to dismantle and produce products in just one country.
将这一过程引申到企业的领域也是一样。当今企业都专注于生产他们质量最高、效率最高的产品，然后通过贸易获得其他产品。这就意味着企业都高度依赖一个全球化的、紧密联系的、相互依赖的制造商网络来生产产品。这个网络的联系是如此紧密，几乎不太可能将其拆开，在一个国家生产所有的产品。
Let's take a look at the interconnected web we saw a few moments ago, and let's focus on just one strand between the US and Mexico. The Wilson Institute says that shared production represents 40 percent of the half a trillion dollars in trade between the US and Mexico. That's about200 billion dollars, or the same as the GDP for Portugal. So let's just imagine that the US decides to impose a 20 percent border tax on all imports from Mexico.
我们来回顾一下刚刚看到的紧密联系的网络，我们只看其中一条线，美国和墨西哥之间的那一条。威尔逊学院的数据显示，美国和墨西哥的贸易额为5000亿美元，其中40%是协同生产。差不多是2000亿美元，相当于葡萄牙全国的GDP。假设一下，如果美国决定对所有进口自墨西哥的产品征20%的国境税。
OK, fine. But do you think Mexico is just going to stand by and let that happen? No. No way. So in retaliation, they impose a similar tax on all goods being imported from the US, and a little game of tit-for-tat ensues, and 20 percent -- just imagine that 20 percent duties are added to every good, product, product component crossing back and forth across the border, and you could be looking at more than a 40 percent increase in duties, or 80 billion dollars.
没问题。但是你们觉得墨西哥会欣然接受吗？不可能的。作为回应，他们也会征收相似的税率，针对所有进口自美国的产品，就这样你来我往，想象一下这20%的税被加到所有的货物，产品及其部件，只要过境就会被征收，这样一来税率的增加就会大于40%，或者说800亿美元。
Now, don't kid yourself, these costs are going to be passed along to you and to me. Now, let's think about what impact that might have on some of the products, or the prices of the products, that we buy every day. So if a 30 percent increase in duties were actually passed along, we would be looking at some pretty important increases in prices.
不要天真了，这些费用的增加一定会被摊到你我身上。我们来看一下这会对商品产生什么样的影响，或者说对我们日常用品的价格会产生什么影响。如果税率增加30%，我们会看到明显的价格上涨。
A Lincoln MKZ would go from 37,000dollars to 48,000. And the price of a Sharp 60-inch HDTV would go from 898 dollars to 1,167 dollars. And the price of a 16-ounce jar of CVS skin moisturizer would go from 13 dollars to 17 dollars. Now, remember, this is only looking at onestrand of the production chain between the US and Mexico, so multiply this out across all of the strands. The impact could be considerable.
一辆林肯MKZ会从37000美元上涨到48000美元。一台60寸的夏普高清电视的价格会从898美元上涨到1167美元。一罐454克的CVS润肤霜价格会从13美元上涨到17美元。提醒一下，这还仅仅只是美国和墨西哥之间，只是产品网络中的一条线，如果把所有的线都叠加起来。产生的影响就会相当大了。
Now, just think about this: even if we were able to dismantle this network and produce products in just one country, which by the way is easier said than done, we would still only be saving or protecting one out of 10 lost manufacturing jobs. That's right, because remember, most of those jobs, 87 percent, were lost due to improvements in our own productivity.
试想一下，即使我们能够将整个网络分解，在一个国家生产所有的产品，当然，这操作起来很难，我们也仅仅能够保住10个制造业岗位中的1个。没错，因为请记住，大部分的工作岗位，高达87%，是因为我们生产率的提高而流失。
And unfortunately, those jobs, they're gone for good. So the real question is, does it make sense for us to drive up prices to the point where many of us can't afford the basic goods we use every day for the purpose of saving a job that might be eliminated in a couple of years anyway?
而且遗憾的是，这些工作岗位再也找不回来了。现在问题来了，我们让价格上涨，直到大部分人都买不起基本生活用品，而目的仅仅为了保住一个工作岗位，而这个工作岗位在几年后又肯定会失去，那么这件事到底有没有意义？
The reality is that shared productional lows us to manufacture higher quality products at lower costs. It's that simple. It allows us to get more out of the limited resources and expertise we have and at the same time benefit from lower prices. It's really important to remember that for shared production to be effective, it relies on efficient cross-border movement of raw materials, components and finished products.
现实就是，协同生产可以让我们以很低的成本生产高质量的产品。就这么简单。这样可以让我们充分利用有限的资源和专业技能同时通过较低的价格获利。对于协同生产而言，很重要的一点就是，它依赖于对原料、零件和制成品高效的跨境运输。
So remember this: the next time you're hearing somebody try to sell you on the idea that protectionism is a good deal, it's just not.
请大家记住，下次你们要是再遇到有人宣扬贸易保护主义是一件好事，千万别再被忽悠了。
Thank you.(Applause)
谢谢大家。（掌声）
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